It is never too early to look ahead and try to get a fix on the potential match-ups in the next big election cycle. So let’s take a peek at what I think will happen in 2010 statewide and in a few Congressional races.
Governor: Strickland vs. Kasich
Ted Strickland is a popular governor. Newspapers all over the Great State of Ohio will tell you that. What they won’t tell you is that Strickland is trending to be a less popular governor than Bob Taft was at the same point and we all remember how that turned out. I’m hearing that there is some question as to whether or not Lee Fisher will stay on the ticket. Some folks are saying that Fisher did not ask to remain on the ticket.
More on what Fisher’s plans may be in a bit…
John Kasich hasn’t announced yet, but he is considered to be the GOP’s front-runner for the nomination. Kevin Coughlin also recently announced that he would seek the nod. I like Coughlin…a lot, actually…but this is Kasich’s race to lose and the only way he fails is if he doesn’t run.
Treasurer: Boyce vs. Mandel
There was some talk out there that Coughlin was wanting the party to convince him to run for Treasurer instead, but it is looking more and more as if State Rep. Josh Mandel is locking up the support he needs to make a statewide run. Josh has a great bio and has tremendous crossover appeal while standing on a solid conservative record. Boyce was hand-picked by the governor to take over for Richard Cordray when he moved over to the Attorney General’s office, so he has low name identification and this race may represent the GOP’s best chance at reclaiming a statewide office.
Secretary of State: Brunner vs. Husted
Regular readers of my work will know that I am not a fan of former Speaker now Senator Jon Husted, but he is likely to be our party’s nominee for Secretary of State. Brunner ought to be a pretty easy target since she has become the most partisan Secretary of State in Ohio history but the Republican nominee is going to have to frame those issues delicately yet firmly.
Auditor: Taylor vs. ???
Republican Mary Taylor has been phenomenal as Auditor. While she (or her supporters) has made some waves about moving up early, it is pretty much a sure bet that Taylor will seek – and win – re-election.
United States Senate: Portman vs. Fisher vs. Pierce
The retirement of George Voinovich makes this an open seat and early polling shows that the race is pretty wide open. Sources tell me that people at the NRSC were not all that hopeful that Voinovich could retain the seat anyway. Rob Portman announced that he would run for the seat the same week that Voinovich indicated that he would not seek re-election.
The most likely Democratic opponent is Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher who can usually be found in the “loser” column in races he is on the ballot by himself. Let’s also not forget how many jobs Ohio has lost while Fisher has been in charge of Ohio’s Development office.
There is another candidate who is in the race, but he is likely to be ignored by most media types. William G. Pierce is running for the United States Senate again. Bill previously ran a spirited primary campaign against Mike Dewine and David Smith. Dewine won that match and went on to lose to Sherrod Brown.
OH-01: Driehaus vs. Chabot
It was almost a forgone conclusion that Steve Chabot was going to go for a re-match against Steve Driehaus in the First Congressional District. Chabot had held the seat for a long time and the Driehaus victory was not overpowering. Many have suggested that Driehaus was helped by having Barack Obama on the ticket, an event that will not occur in 2010. The district is heavily African-American and it will be interesting to see if that demographic turns out as heavily for Driehaus as they did for Obama.
OH-02: Schmidt vs. ??? vs. Krikorian
The Angry Armenian, David Krikorian, has already announced that he would run again against Rep. Jean Schmidt in the Second Congressional District. What remains to be seen is whether or not Krikorian will do so as a Democrat. My guess is that he won’t be honest with the good people of the district for a second time. The big question is whether or not Democrats will run Dr. Victoria Wells-Wulsin, of malariotherapy fame, one more time thinking that the third time is the charm.
OH-03: Turner vs. Esrati
Mike Turner was a great mayor of Dayton and I think part of why he has managed to keep this seat stems from that experience. Democrats have tried a spouse abuser, a no namer, and a radical socialist (twice!) . Will they now turn to internet ranter and frequent failed primary candidate David Esrati? If I am not mistaken, he’s even managed to tick off his own party…so look for them to try to find somebody amongst the zeroes in Montgomery County to take another shot at My Mayor.
What Do You Think?
Please tell us what you think about these races plus your thoughts on other match-ups in the comments.
Matt Hurley is the Contributing Editor of Weapons of Mass Discussion and the Ohio Editor for RedCounty.com. He is also the owner of TIB Radio internet radio station and co-hosts the TIB All-Stars Show which broadcasts live and direct every Saturday night at 7PM.
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